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Abstract
This paper develops a tractable quantitative framework for analyzing sectoral labor reallocation
and unemployment. The framework features analytical solutions for sectoral wages, employment
and unemployment dynamics, as well as aggregate unemployment, which allows fast
model estimation from labor market transition data and convenient counterfactual exercises to
quantify the impact of sectoral shocks and the relevant labor market institutions. In particular,
the framework accommodates two important features of the data: (i) heterogeneous response
of sectoral labor market dynamics to shocks; and (ii) persistent unemployment accompanied by
persistently depressed wages for certain sectors. I apply the framework to test the sectoral shifts
hypothesis and find that a 1% increase in sectoral shock dispersion would raise aggregate unemployment
by 0.55%. The result is consistent with the observation of slow employment recovery
post recent recessions with job polarization.