Graph states are fundamental objects in the theory of quantum information due to their simple classical description and rich entanglement structure. They are also intimately related to instantaneous quantum polynomial-time (IQP) circuits, which have applications in quantum pseudorandomness and quantum advantage. For us, they are a toy model to understand the relation between circuit connectivity, entanglement structure, and computational complexity. In the worst case, a strict dichotomy in the computational universality of such graph states appears as a function of the degree π of a regular graph state [Ghosh et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 131, 030601 (2023)]. In this paper, we study the average-case complexity of simulating random graph states of varying degree when measured in random product bases and give distinct evidence that a similar complexity-theoretic dichotomy exists in the average case. Specifically, we consider random π-regular graph states and prove three distinct results: First, we show two families of IQP circuits of depth π and show that they anticoncentrate for any 2 <π =πβ‘(π1/2) when measured in a random π-π plane product basis. This implies anticoncentration for random constant-regular graph states. Second, in the regime π =Ξβ‘(ππ) with π β(0,1), we prove that random π-regular graph states contain polynomially large grid graphs as induced subgraphs with high probability. This implies that they are universal resource states for measurement-based computation. Third, in the regime of high degree (π βΌπ/2), we show that random graph states are not sufficiently entangled to be trivially classically simulable, unlike Haar-random states. Proving the three results requires different techniquesβthe analysis of a classical statistical-mechanics model using Krawtchouck polynomials, graph-theoretic analysis using the switching method, and analysis of the ranks of submatrices of random adjacency matrices, respectively.