Data from the Norwegian Earth System Model, plotted in Fig. 1, is described by ref. 1. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 model outputs are available at https://doi.org/10.11582/2019.00007, while the geoengineering model output is available at https://doi.org/10.11582/2023.00004. Data from the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as the atmospheric component, plotted in Fig. 2a, is described by ref. 2. Data from CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model as the atmospheric component, plotted in Fig. 2b, is described by refs. 10,11. All CESM2 data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13905902.

Code used to generate Figs. 1 and 2 are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13905902.

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