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Abstract
The practice of international relations extends beyond bandwagoning and balancing. In between these approaches lies hedging, often characterized as a behavior exhibited by small states during periods of relative peace. This paper argues that hedging can also be adopted by middle powers when they find themselves surrounded by threats and competition, as evidenced by the case of South Korea and its current hedging strategy. The aim is to explore South Korea’s transition from a strategy of soft hedging to one of hard hedging vis-à-vis the United States. The argument is as follows: In addition to the growing aggressiveness from North Korea, the Ukraine War has acted as an exogenous shock, prompting South Korea to recognize its vulnerabilities. This shock has influenced three key mechanisms: 1) The perception and need of the United States. 2) The national discourse. 3) Public opinion on nuclearization and the ROK-US alliance. These mechanisms, in turn, are expected to create variations within South Korea’s national defense program, revealing a hedging behavior that aligns with what Scott A. Snyder might define as “internationalization plus autonomy".