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Abstract

This research provides the first spatially explicit understanding of the effects of de-jure administrative boundaries on groundwater extraction in India. By discovering a link between the spatial configurations of settlements, administrative boundaries, and reservoirs of groundwater, we develop a new methodological approach for understanding the drivers of groundwater scarcity, as measured through estimates of volumetric extraction and the persistence of dry wells over time. To contextualize the problem, we first undertake a qualitative review of India’s past and present policies on water governance and identify some structural deficiencies and their persistence across larger systems of urban and rural governance. We find two critical historical linkages in India’s Water-Food-Energy nexus that can be attributed for driving over-extraction of groundwater over time. We formulate the persistence of these linkages as a larger problem of fragmentation - lack of coordination between contiguous administrative units sharing common aquifer systems and misdirected investments due to federated governance structures exacerbating this problem. We posit that the misdirected investments arise due to the “out of sight” characteristic of groundwater, leading to a difference between actual and perceived scarcity of water. To test this explanation empirically using models in spatial econometrics, we develop a new class of spatial weights called Rel-Weights that allow for interaction between resource and administrative boundaries through irregular 2-dimensional contiguity, a unique spatial characteristic of non-overlapping administrative and resource boundaries. We then compare model outcomes using RelWeights in comparison to Queen Weights in an ensemble of spatial econometric models (SAR, SEM, Spatial Durbin Model, Spatial Lag & Error Probit) to identify drivers of over-extraction, finding strong evidence against the normative policies of groundwater welfarism adopted by the state and a distinct set of drivers for real and perceived scarcity of groundwater. Finally, we study the possibility of creating alternative clusters for the effective regulation of groundwater while synergistically improving the sustainable use of groundwater through a series of counterfactual simulations.

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