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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between carbon prices and energy inflation. We look at the history of carbon prices in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and different measures of energy inflation throughout the history of the EU ETS in order to analyze the transformation of their relationship through time. Our hypothesis is that the inflationary effects of carbon pricing have increased in magnitude and significance with time, with most of the pressure being put on the producers. We expect the relationship between carbon prices and producer prices to be direct. First, we look at industrial and electricity prices collected semiannually and the corresponding carbon price data. After controlling for GDP and Gas Prices we find no statistically significant relationship between carbon prices and industrial electricity prices, but an inverse relationship between carbon prices and household electricity prices. Then we looked at the bigger sample of energy inflation measures. Specifically, monthly collected Energy PPI and ICP (Producer Price Index and Index of Consumer Prices) were regressed on the carbon prices data. Now we conducted separate analyses for each of the four stages of the EU ETS’s development. Results show a strongly significant inverse relationship between ICP and carbon prices in the earliest phase and a direct relationship between PPI and carbon prices in the latest phase of development. These results support our hypothesis but bring more context to the discussion table. While the first step could not reveal any relationship between carbon prices and the producer prices as we predicted, this result is understandable after taking into account the next analysis which shows that only the latest period was significant. The inverse relationship between carbon prices is however a consistent result that is rather unintuitive. The explanation for it is likely in the fact that consumer electricity prices in the EU are under stricter regulations, and early after EU ETS’s introduction the following policy changes could be associated with a negative movement in consumer electricity prices despite the carbon prices’ growth.

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