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Abstract
We perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problemof empirical asset pricing: measuring asset risk premiums. We demonstrate large economic
gains to investors using machine learning forecasts, in some cases doubling the performance
of leading regression-based strategies from the literature. We identify the best-performing
methods (trees and neural networks) and trace their predictive gains to allowing nonlinear
predictor interactions missed by other methods. All methods agree on the same set of dominant
predictive signals, a set that includes variations on momentum, liquidity, and volatility.