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Abstract

Democracy has allowed the understanding of citizens’ Political Preferences, for then lead the implementation of Public Policy Menus consistent with those preferences. I argue that Democratic Instability may be caused in Full-Democracies when the Democratic Institutions fail to process most citizens’ Political Preferences. I test this hypothesis by using Voters Turnout as a proxy of the share of citizens’ Represented Political Preferences, and estimate its effect on Internal Conflict as proxy of Democratic Instability. Using a novel instrumental variable based on exogenous shock provided by Rainfall on Election Days, I find a positive causal effect of Voters Turnout in Internal Conflict. As my empirical strategy also corrects for mismeasurment error presented in proxy variables, I find a causal positive effect of the Represented Political Preferences on Democratic Stability.

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