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Abstract
I explore what U.S. state government bond prices imply about the relative recovery rates of
pensioners and debtholders in a state default. Across U.S. states from 2005 to 2016, a one-
standard-deviation increase in the ratio of unfunded pension liabilities to GDP is associated
with a 27-32 basis point increase in bond spreads over the Treasury rate. Unfunded pensions
cost U.S. states over $2 billion in lost bond issuance proceeds in 2016. Event study exercises
examining the reactions of bond spreads to a pension reform in Illinois provide evidence that
the effct of unfunded pension liabilities on bond spreads is causal. The effect of unfunded
pension liabilities on bond spreads is stronger in states where pensioners are likely to have
higher bargaining power or legal protection in a default. These facts are consistent with
predictions from a structural model of municipal government credit, and model estimates
reveal substantial cross-sectional variation in investor perceptions of pension seniority. These
perceptions are related to state-level political and legal factors which may affect recovery
rates of pensioners in a default.