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Abstract
Motivation: As the United States becomes increasingly diverse through immigration, understanding how demographic change affects community solidarity is a critical policy concern. While research documents associations between ethnic diversity and social cohesion, the mechanisms driving these relationships remain unclear. Problem Statement: This study examines whether employment mediates the relationship between immigration-driven demographic change and social cohesion. Specifically, it tests if increases in foreign-born population shares reduce natives’ employment opportunities, thereby lowering social cohesion. Approach: We combine data from the American Community Survey and the CPS-CEV supplement (2017–2023), analyzing 43,548 respondents across 12 metropolitan areas. Linear mediation models decompose total associations into direct and indirect (via employment) effects, with bootstrap confidence intervals and robustness checks (simulation-based GLMs, IPW, regression imputation). Results: Metros with significant foreign-born growth exhibit a binary cohesion effect of β = 0.002 (95% CI: –0.009, 0.012; p=0.917) and a continuous effect of β = 0.032 (95% CI: –0.001, 0.068; p=0.071). Indirect effects via employment are negligible (0.0001; 95% CI: –0.0003, 0.0005), representing <1% mediation. Conclusions: Employment does not meaningfully mediate demographic-change effects on social cohesion, challenging economic-competition explanations. Very small effect sizes suggest minimal practical significance; policies should consider alternative pathways like intergroup contact, cultural-bridge initiatives, or institutional responses.