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Abstract

This paper examines whether personal income tax cuts have impact on individuals’ marriage decisions through the 2011 tax reform in China. Using micro-level data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and employing an RD design, this paper finds that tax cuts significantly increase the probability of marriage among low-income women near the lowest tax threshold, with an estimated effect size of 3–4 percentage points. In contrast, no robust significant effect is detected for men. A series of robustness checks confirms the stability of these findings. The results suggest that direct income increases, even under a withholding tax system without joint filing, can positively affect marriage, particularly among low- and middle-income women. These findings contribute to understanding the economic determinants of marriage and provide insights for policymakers trying to address the low marriage and fertility challenge.

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