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Abstract
This study investigates how earmarked funding affects the allocation of public multilateral climate finance, particularly in relation to the stated "50-50" distribution goals of the Paris Agreement to equally fund mitigation and adaptation projects targeting vulnerable countries. Using data from 208 projects funded by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) from 2014 to 2023, this study examines the influence of earmarked co-financing on project focus (mitigation, adaptation, or multiple foci) and project allocation—whether projects in more vulnerable states receive lower shares of co-financing compared to less vulnerable states. While initial findings posit strong support for the effects of earmarked co-financing on creating a mitigation bias and allocation towards moderately developed states over more vulnerable states, controlling for project size and type of funding greatly moderates earmarking’s effects. Project size and financing type (public/private) emerge as important factors shaping project focus and allocation. The study highlights the complex nature of donor influence in climate finance funds and calls for further research to identify avenues of donor influence in multilateral public aid.