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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of export bans on foreign direct investment (FDI) in resource-rich countries, using Indonesia as a case study. Protectionist measures have become more prevalent, and export bans have emerged as a strategy to promote development in downstream industries. As the global demand for critical minerals rises with the green transition, Indonesia, which is abundant in critical minerals, utilizes export bans as a strategy to promote FDI in downstream mineral processing industries. Despite academic literature supporting a negative relationship between export bans and FDI, data from Indonesia between 2017 and 2022 indicates a consistent increase in FDI inflows, regardless of the escalating implementation of export bans. This paper argues that factors, such as access to a large market, favorable business environment, and democratic political structure exert more significant influence on FDI inflows than export bans alone, offsetting the adverse impact of export bans on FDI. Results from this study prompt further research into the implications of critical mineral export bans on domestic capital markets, the impact of other export restrictions on FDI, such as agricultural or technology export bans, and the effects of regulation, such as tax incentives, on creating a conducive business environment to attract FDI.

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