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Abstract

In this paper, I study the effect of minimum wage increases on employment. In particular, I examine data from the Current Population Survey to estimate the employment effect of New Jersey’s $15/hour minimum wage phase-in implemented in 2019. I break down the hourly wage distribution into a series of wage bins and use a synthetic control to create a counterfactual wage distribution. I estimate employment changes within each bin, then use these estimates to find the number of “missing” jobs below the new minimum wage and compare with the number of “excess” jobs above the new minimum wage to net out the total change in employment. I track the dynamics of these employment changes over time as five wage increases take effect between July 2019 through January 2023. I find the emergence of both missing and excess jobs that coincide with each minimum wage increase, but these changes do not persist through subsequent minimum wage increases. The magnitude of excess jobs dominates missing jobs which creates temporary boosts in total employment as a result of each wage increase. Overall, I do not find any sustained increase or decrease in employment resulting from the minimum wage phase-in.

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