The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk.
Details
Title
Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment
Author
Lipsitch, Marc : Harvard University : (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1504-9213) Barclay, Wendy : Imperial College London Raman, Rahul : Massachusetts Institute of Technology Russell, Charles J. : St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital Belser, Jessica A. : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Cobey, Sarah : University of Chicago Kasson, Peter M. : University of Virginia Lloyd-Smith, James O. : University of California, Los Angeles : (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7941-502X) Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian : Agency for Science Technology and Research Riley, Steven : Imperial College London Beauchemin, Catherine A. : Ryerson University : (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-0069) Bedford, Trevor : Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Friedrich, Thomas C. : University of Wisconsin-Madison Handel, Andreas : University of Georgia : (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4622-1146) Herfst, Sander : Erasmus Medical Center Murcia, Pablo R. : University of Glasgow : (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4352-394X) Roche, Benjamin : IRD/UPMC UMMISCO Wilke, Claus O. : University of Texas at Austin : (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7470-9261) Russell, Colin A. : University of Cambridge : (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2113-162X)
Funding Information
National Institutes of Health, U54 GM088558 National Institutes of Health, RAPIDD program, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance, HHSN272201400006C National Institutes of Health, R01 GM098304 National Health and Medical Research Council, 12/1/06/24/5793 Agency for Science, Technology and Research, 12/1/06/24/5793 Wellcome, 093488/Z/10/Z Wellcome, 200187/Z/15/Z Wellcome, 200861/Z/16/Z Medical Research Council, MR/J008761/1 National Institute of General Medical Sciences, MIDAS U01 GM110721-01 Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, 355837-2013 Ministry of Research and Innovation of Ontario, ER13-09-040 Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, VIDI grant, 91715372 Medical Research Council, G0801822 National Institutes of Health, R01 GM088344 Royal Society, University Research Fellowship
Publication Date
2016-11-11
Language
English
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.