Chagas disease vector control and Taylor's law

Background: Large spatial and temporal fluctuations in the population density of living organisms have profound consequences for biodiversity conservation, food production, pest control and disease control, especially vector-borne disease control. Chagas disease vector control based on insecticide spraying could benefit from improved concepts and methods to deal with spatial variations in vector population density.

Methodology/Principal findings: We show that Taylor's law (TL) of fluctuation scaling describes accurately the mean and variance over space of relative abundance, by habitat, of four insect vectors of Chagas disease (Triatoma infestans, Triatoma guasayana, Triatoma garciabesi and Triatoma sordida) in 33,908 searches of people's dwellings and associated habitats in 79 field surveys in four districts in the Argentine Chaco region, before and after insecticide spraying. As TL predicts, the logarithm of the sample variance of bug relative abundance closely approximates a linear function of the logarithm of the sample mean of abundance in different habitats. Slopes of TL indicate spatial aggregation or variation in habitat suitability. Predictions of new mathematical models of the effect of vector control measures on TL agree overall with field data before and after community-wide spraying of insecticide.

Conclusions/Significance: A spatial Taylor's law identifies key habitats with high average infestation and spatially highly variable infestation, providing a new instrument for the control and elimination of the vectors of a major human disease.

Author summary: Chagas disease, or American trypanosomiasis, is mainly transmitted to humans by insects that dwell in human habitations and structures closely associated with human habitations, such as kitchen out-buildings, chicken coops, goat corrals, and grain storage bins. Widespread in the Americas, the disease causes chronic illness and often eventual death. No vaccines exist. Available drugs may cause undesirable adverse effects and do not prevent re-infection. Efforts at suppressing the disease have been directed at eliminating the principal insect vector species from human dwelling compounds. Effective insecticide spraying requires finding out where the insects are. Both the average and the variance of the relative number of insect vectors of each species in each habitat are relevant to control efforts. We demonstrate here that the spatial distribution of the insect vectors of Chagas disease obeys a previously unrecognized pattern, known in ecology as Taylor's law (TL): in different habitats, the variance of vector relative numbers is approximately a power function of the mean of vector relative numbers. TL identifies key habitats with high average infestation and highly variable infestation, providing a new instrument for the control and elimination of the vectors of a major human disease.