Gray Zone Tactic Choice: Understanding How and Why States Utilize Sub-Limited Warfare

States constantly pursue their aims or attempt to weaken one another without resorting to conventional war. To do this, they employ different types of sub-limited operations to manipulate or weaken a defender state. This thesis examines these operations as deliberately selected tactics that can elicit different perceptions and responses in international politics. Specifically, it asks whether two variables, target scope and confrontation history, influence whether a state uses a kinetic or non-kinetic operation type. By analyzing an original data set of Iranian sub-limited operation usage between 2010 to 2024, and two historical case studies, this thesis finds suggestive evidence that states are most likely to use kinetic mechanisms against narrow targets within adversaries with whom they have a high confrontation history.