Between Need and Power: Evidence from Two Decades of Climate Finance

In this thesis, I review bilateral official development assistance (ODA) for environmental objectives data compiled by OECD (2002-2024) and climate vulnerability and readiness indices to empirically test Keynesian and World-Systems expectations on sectoral preferences of bilateral donors, the relationship between climate finance and recipient characteristics, and shifts in macrolevel allocation trends before and following the 2015 Paris Agreement. I find that sectoral preferences of bilateral donors tend to follow existing national ODA strategies, which heavily favor mitigation and production sectors. Additionally, I find that climate finance is only partially driven by vulnerability at average levels, but that finance becomes severely contracted for highly vulnerable countries. While the implementation of the Paris Agreement does result in a larger incorporation of adaptation into ODA commitments, I find that this is still limited by donor preferences. Additionally, while readiness becomes insignificant for climate finance allocation post-2015, extreme disparities for the most vulnerable countries persist.