Fear Factor: Threat Perception and Susceptibility to Foreign Intelligence Operations

This study explores Foreign Intelligence Operations (FIOs) and how threat perceptions enable or complicate their success. I examine FIOs through two most-similar case studies, Estonia and Slovakia, and question why Russian operations have greater impact in Slovakia but struggle in Estonia, an outcome that challenges existing theories on FIO susceptibility. After building a theoretical framework, I argue that threat perceptions are correlated to countries' susceptibility to FIOs. Building on existing threat perception literature, I expand the logic of threat perception and willingness to fight and apply it to a willingness to invest in defending against FIOs, thus reducing susceptibility. Leveraging qualitative and quantitative data, I trace each country's threat perceptions, counter-FIO investments, and susceptibility and find that higher threat perceptions are indicative of lower FIO susceptibility. The implications of these findings range from theory-building around intelligence operations to insights into policies and strategies with tangible impacts on geopolitics and security.