Plata o Plomo: Analyzing Cartel Responses to Government Intervention in Mexican Border Cities

This thesis examines how drug cartels in Mexican border cities came into power and responded to government intervention during President Felipe Calderón’s (2006-2012) militarized War on Drugs through a comparative, historical analysis. Border cities are uniquely vulnerable in the drug trade due to their access to highly sought-after smuggling corridors into the U.S., and highly susceptible to cartel-related violence for this reason. This thesis primarily focuses on the often overlooked historical pasts of Tijuana and Juárez, highlighting the significance of local political governance, social conditions, and the organization of the cartels as a means to understand the pre and post Calderón-era factors that allowed for violence to thrive in these areas. I argue that cartel violence in the 2000s and mid 2010s was exacerbated and shaped by pre-existing structural conditions, not solely the militarized operations carried out in these areas. The findings within this paper contribute to broader scholarship on organized crime, narcopolitics, and the War on Drugs by pinpointing why similar government intervention tactics produced different outcomes in cities with comparable social conditions.