Physical Sciences Division
Published May 17, 2021 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Creators

  • 1. Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
  • 2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 3. Columbia University
  • 4. University of Chicago
  • 5. Université de Liège
  • 6. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 7. China Agricultural University
  • 8. University of Birmingham
  • 9. Lund University
  • 10. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • 11. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  • 12. Technical University of Munich

Description

Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

Data availability

GGCMI phase II simulation data, separated by crop and model, are made available for download at a central open-access repository (https://zenodo.org/communities/agmip/).

Files

Global Change Biology - 2021 - Zabel - Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties.pdf

Files (5.7 MB)

Additional details

Identifiers

DOI
10.1111/gcb.15649
Other
oai:uchicago.tind.io:13973

Funding

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
031B0230B
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
031B0788B
Open Philanthropy Project
European Research Area for Climate Services
01LS1711B
National Science Foundation
DGE-1735359
National Science Foundation
DGE-1746045
Projekt DEAL

UChicago Information

Division(s)
Physical Sciences Division
Department(s)
Geophysical Sciences