Committee on International Relations MA Theses
Published August 2026 | Version v1
Thesis Embargoed

Pivot, Protect, or Perish? Geoeconomic Resilience in an Era of Great Power Rivalry

Creators

  • 1. ROR icon University of Chicago

Contributors

Committee member:

  • 1. ROR icon University of Chicago

Description

When a multinational can no longer lobby or seek exemptions to avoid US–China coercion, what actions does it take? Between 2018 and 2025, US coercive policy toward China expanded from regulation to capability denial: tariffs and behind-the-border rulemaking were joined by export controls, investment screening, and entity-list sanctions targeting the foreign operations of US-headquartered firms. Traditional IPE theories do not address this case. Coercive statecraft (Hirschman 1945; Vernon 1971) refers to cross-border coercion of foreign targets, not to home-state coercive constraints on globally embedded firms. Firm-agency accounts of regulatory bargaining (Gulotty 2020) assume a cooperative firm-state equilibrium that security coercion has now overridden. The account built for exactly these instruments, Weaponized Interdependence (Farrell and Newman 2019), explains how states turn network chokepoints into tools of coercion but treats the firms caught in them as objects rather than as agents with their own responses.

 

In this thesis, I define geoeconomic resilience as the ability of multinational firms to reorganize production and investment when governments use trade and security policies to alter them, rather than absorb the shock and maintain their existing position. I advance Geoeconomic Resilience Theory (GR Theory) to explain what exposed multinationals do at their firm-specific inflection point. When bargaining no longer secures market access, more forceful adaptation becomes the dominant response: market exit, supply-chain repatriation, dual sourcing, and regional divergence. I operationalize GR Theory through the GR framework, which classifies firm responses into four modes (Fortify, Hedge, Shift, Retract) using observable US policy designations rather than self-reported exposure. I test the argument across capital-intensive multinationals in technology, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace, combining five evidence streams: 10-K coding for sector-level placement, firm-level FDI reallocation, sector synthesis, elite interviews, and case studies.

 

The five streams converge most clearly in the limiting cases. When capability-denial instruments attach to a firm’s securitized product, the cooperative toolkit fails, and the firm reconfigures structurally. When they do not, the firm adapts incrementally. This claim is testable. A firm’s place in the GR framework predicts which of four responses it will choose, and the prediction held in 34 of 56 cases; chance would yield roughly 14. The deviations run opposite to Weaponized Interdependence: firms under the most binding exposure have largely held their positions, while several under lighter pressure have moved substantial capital out of China. Across disclosure, capital, and elite testimony, firms demonstrate adaptive autonomy: they reconfigure under state pressure without being controlled by it. In an era of great-power rivalry, government coercion is public, and firm autonomy leaves footprints, first in words, then in capital. Because that response is visible in advance from a firm’s policy exposure, it has implications for investors, policymakers, and the communities affected

Table of contents

I. Introduction 

II. Four Debates GR Theory Enters

III. Theoretical Framework: Geoeconomic Resilience Under Securitized Coercion 

IV. Research Design: Testing GR Theory Through the Evidence

V. Results and Findings 

VI. Discussion 

VII. Conclusion 

Bibliography 

Appendix A. Sample Walkdown and By-Firm Results 

Appendix B. GR Classification and Policy-Instrument Sourcing 

Appendix C. The Resilience Index: Pre-Registration, Coding, Exclusions, and Robustness

Appendix D. The FDI Reallocation Index: Sources and Method

Appendix E. Qualitative Evidence and Case-Study Protocol 

Appendix F. Firm-Level Moderators: Extended Definitions and Operationalization 

Appendix G. Extended Methods 

Methods

Testing GR Theory requires capturing adaptation in three places at once: what a firm says, where its capital goes, and why its leaders chose the move. No single method can capture all three. Theoretical mapping alone would predict adaptation but could not test it.

The 10-K index alone would show what firms say, not whether they act on it. Investment data alone would show capital moving but could not explain why. Case studies and interviews alone could surface the reasoning but could not show whether the pattern holds broadly. The design therefore combines five sources: theoretical mapping from policy designations, a 10-K resilience index, FDI reallocation data, case studies, and executive interviews. Each covers a blind spot the others leave open.

Data availability

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2016–2025. “BIS Public Data and Policy Documents.” https://www.bis.doc.gov.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2019. “Addition of Entities to the Entity List.” Final rule. 84 Federal Register 22961 (May 21, 2019). https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/21/2019-10616/addition-of-entities-to-the-entity-list.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2022a. “Implementation of Additional Export Controls: Certain Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items; Supercomputer and Semiconductor End Use; Entity List Modification.” Interim final rule. 87 Federal Register 62186 (October 13, 2022).https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/10/13/2022-21658.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2022b. “Additions of Entities to the Entity List.” Final rule. Federal Register 87, no. 163 (August 24, 2022). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2022-08-24/pdf/FR-2022-08-24.pdf.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2023. “Export Controls on Semiconductor Manufacturing Items.” Interim final rule. 88 Federal Register 73424 (October 25, 2023).
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/10/25/2023-23055.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2024. “Six Years of Enhancing Scrutiny & Expanding Controls: BIS Licensing Policy Toward the People’s Republic of China (2018–2023).” US Department of Commerce (July 2, 2024). Accessed June 18, 2026. https://www.bis.gov/media/documents/7.2.2024-bis-summary-document-final.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2025a. “Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion.” Interim final rule. 90 Federal Register 4544 (January 15, 2025). RIN 0694-AJ90. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/15/2025-00636.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2025b. “Department of Commerce Announces Rescission of Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, Strengthens Chip-Related Export Controls.” Press release, May 13, 2025. https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-announces-rescission-biden-era-artificial-intelligence-diffusion-rule-strengthens.

Bureau of Industry and Security. 2025c. “Section 232 Investigations.” U.S. Department of Commerce. Accessed June 18, 2026. https://www.bis.gov/about-bis/bis-leadership-and-offices/SIES/section-232-investigations.

Executive Order 13944. 2020. “Combating Public Health Emergencies and Strengthening National Security by Ensuring Essential Medicines, Medical Countermeasures, and Critical Inputs Are Made in the United States.” Signed August 6, 2020. Federal Register 85, no. 158 (August 14, 2020): 49929. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/08/14/2020-18012.

Executive Order 14257. 2025. “Regulating Imports With a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices That Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits.” 90 Federal Register 15041 (April 2, 2025). https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/04/07/2025-06063.

fDi Markets. 2026. Greenfield Project Records: Custom Dataset on Capital-Intensive
Multinationals in Technology, Pharmaceuticals, and Aerospace, 2007–2025. Commissioned data extract delivered by Mark Hays, FT Locations, Financial Times. June 16, 2026. London: Financial Times.

Federal Register. 2016–2025. “United States Policy Documents.” https://www.federalregister.gov.

National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, Public Law 115-232, Section 889 (codified at 41 U.S.C. § 3901 note). 132 Stat. 1636 (August 13, 2018).
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515.

Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). 2016–2025. China Military-Industrial Complex Companies (NS-CMIC) List. US Department of the Treasury.

Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). 2024. “Notice of Modification: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation (Section 301 Four-Year Review Determination).” Federal Register 89 FR 76581. https://ustr.gov.

Presidential Proclamation 9704. 2018. “Adjusting Imports of Aluminum into the United States.” 83 Federal Register 11619 (March 15, 2018). https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/03/15/2018-05477.

Presidential Proclamation 9705. 2018. “Adjusting Imports of Steel into the United States.” 83 Federal Register 11625 (March 15, 2018). https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/03/15/2018-05478.

US Census Bureau. 2016–2025. Trade data (HTS chapters 28–30, 84–85, 88, 90).

US Congress. 2016–2025. “National Defense Authorization Act.” https://www.congress.gov.

US Department of Commerce. 2024. “Biden-Harris Administration Announces CHIPS Incentives Award with Intel.” Press release, November 26, 2024. https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2024/11/biden-harris-administration-announces-chips-incentives-award-intel.

US International Trade Commission. 2016–2025. “USITC DataWeb Tariff Database.” https://dataweb.usitc.gov/tariff/database.

US Securities and Exchange Commission. Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) Database. Fiscal Years 2016 and 2025. https://www.sec.gov/edgar. Firm-level filings cited inline (e.g., Apple 10-K 2025; Intel 10-K 2025; Lockheed Martin 10-K 2025; Qualcomm 8-K 2024) are accessed through this database.

US Trade Representative (USTR). 2016–2025. Section 301 Federal Register notices.

The White House. 2025. “National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President (November 2025). https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf.

Files

Embargoed

The files will be made publicly available on August 28, 2027.

Reason: Preserves a visible UChicago scholarly record while protecting a related academic article during drafting and peer review.

Additional details

Funding

University of Chicago
US State Authority in national security and trade policy during the Trump Era affected multinational corporations. CIR Research

Dates

Available
2026-08

UChicago Information

Division(s)
Social Sciences Division
Department(s)
Committee on International Relations (CIR)

References

  • Apple Inc. 2025. Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended September 27, 2025. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. https://www.sec.gov/
  • ASML Holding N.V. 2025. Form 20-F for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024. Washington, DC: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Baldwin, David A. 1985. Economic Statecraft. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Bertrand, Olivier, and Marie-Ann Betschinger. 2012. "Performance of Domestic and Cross-Border Acquisitions: Empirical Evidence from Russian Acquirers." Journal of Comparative Economics 40 (3): 413–437.
  • Bertrand, Olivier, Marie-Ann Betschinger, and Alexander Settles. 2016. "The Relevance of Political Affinity for the Initial Acquisition Premium in Cross-Border Acquisitions." Strategic Management Journal 37 (10): 2071–2091.
  • Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar, Nigel Driffield, Saul Estrin, and Zarlasht M. Razeq. 2025. "Geopolitical Alignment, Outside Options, and Inward FDI: An Integrated Framework and Policy Pathways." Journal of International Business Policy 8 (2): 137–154. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-025-00212-y.
  • Bown, Chad P. 2025. "U.S.-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart." Peterson Institute for International Economics, updated 2025. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart.
  • Buckley, Peter J., Thomas D. Craig, and Ram Mudambi. 2025. "Time and MNE Strategy: Managing Temporal Misalignments in Global Value Chains." Long Range Planning 58 (2): 102511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lrp.2025.102511.
  • Buzan, Barry, Ole Wæver, and Jaap de Wilde. 1998. Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
  • China Daily. 2025. "US Pharmaceutical Giant Opens R&D Center in Beijing." China Daily, March 31, 2025. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202503/31/WS67e9fbd6a3101d4e4dc2bca1.html.
  • DiMaggio, Paul J., and Walter W. Powell. 1983. "The Iron Cage Revisited: Institutional Isomorphism and Collective Rationality in Organizational Fields." American Sociological Review 48 (2): 147–160. https://doi.org/10.2307/2095101.
  • DiMaggio, Paul J., and Walter W. Powell. 1983. "The Iron Cage Revisited: Institutional Isomorphism and Collective Rationality in Organizational Fields." American Sociological Review 48 (2): 147–160. https://doi.org/10.2307/2095101.
  • DiMaggio, Paul J., and Walter W. Powell. 1983. "The Iron Cage Revisited: Institutional Isomorphism and Collective Rationality in Organizational Fields." American Sociological Review 48 (2): 147–160. https://doi.org/10.2307/2095101.
  • Dou, Eva. 2025. House of Huawei: The Secret History of China's Most Powerful Company. New York: Portfolio.
  • Drezner, Daniel W., Henry Farrell, and Abraham L. Newman, eds. 2021. The Uses and Abuses of Weaponized Interdependence. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  • Ehrsam, Scott. 2025. "Shocked! MNC Geoeconomic Resilience Responses in a Volatile Era." Unpublished manuscript, Master of Arts Program in International Relations, University of Chicago, December 2025.
  • Farrell, Henry, and Abraham L. Newman. 2019. "Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion." International Security 44 (1): 42–79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351.
  • Farrell, Henry, and Abraham L. Newman. 2023. Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy. New York: Henry Holt.
  • Freifeld, Karen. 2025. "US Close to Letting UAE Import Millions of Nvidia's AI Chips, Sources Say." Reuters, May 14, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-close-letting-uae-import-millions-nvidias-ai-chips-sources-say-2025-05-14/.
  • George, Alexander L., and Andrew Bennett. 2005. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. BCSIA Studies in International Security. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Gerring, John. 2007. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Ghobakhloo, Morteza, Mohammad Iranmanesh, Behzad Foroughi, Ming-Lang Tseng, Davoud Nikbin, and Ahmad A. A. Khanfar. 2023. "Industry 4.0 Digital Transformation and Opportunities for Supply Chain Resilience: A Comprehensive Review and a Strategic Roadmap." Production Planning & Control 36 (1): 61–91. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2023.2252376.
  • Gulotty, Robert. 2020. Narrowing the Channel: The Politics of Regulatory Protection in International Trade. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Helleiner, Eric. 2021. The Neomercantilists: A Global Intellectual History. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
  • Henisz, Witold J. 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Multinational Investment." Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 16 (2): 334–364. https://doi.org/10.1093/jleo/16.2.334.
  • Henisz, Witold J., and Bennet A. Zelner. 2005. "Legitimacy, Interest Group Pressures, and Change in Emergent Institutions: The Case of Foreign Investors and Host Country Governments." Academy of Management Review 30 (2): 361–382.
  • Hirschman, Albert O. 1945. National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Hirschman, Albert O. 1945. National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Jeffrey J. Schott, Kimberly Ann Elliott, and Barbara Oegg. 2009. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. 3rd ed. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Intel Corporation. 2025. Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 28, 2024. Washington, DC: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Kim, In Song. 2017. "Political Cleavages within Industry: Firm-Level Lobbying for Trade Liberalization." American Political Science Review 111 (1): 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055416000654.
  • Kim, In Song, and Iain Osgood. 2019. "Firms in Trade and Trade Politics." Annual Review of Political Science 22: 399–417. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-063728.
  • Kostova, Tatiana, Kendall Roth, and M. Tina Dacin. 2008. "Institutional Theory in the Study of Multinational Corporations: A Critique and New Directions." Academy of Management Review 33 (4): 994–1006. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2008.34422026.
  • Leswing, Kif. 2025. "Nvidia Says It Follows Export Laws 'to the Letter' a Day after AI Chip Sales to China Stopped." CNBC, April 16, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/nvidia-follows-export-laws-to-the-letter-after-china-chip-sales-end.html.
  • Lockheed Martin. 2025a. "Lockheed Martin Advances Construction on New Next Generation Interceptor Facility in Courtland, Alabama." Press release, December 10, 2025. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2025-12-10-Lockheed-Martin-Advances-Construction-on-new-Next-Generation-Interceptor-Facility-in-Courtland,-Alabama.
  • Lockheed Martin. 2025b. "Lockheed Martin Announces New Industrial Collaboration Project for Philippines Multi-Role Fighter Program." Press release, August 11, 2025. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2025-08-11-Lockheed-Martin-Announces-New-Industrial-Collaboration-Project-for-Philippines-Multi-Role-Fighter-Program.
  • Lockheed Martin Corporation. 2025. Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024. Washington, DC: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Luo, Yadong. 2022. "Illusions of Techno-Nationalism." Journal of International Business Studies 53 (3): 550–567. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-021-00468-5.
  • MacKay, Joseph. 2023. "The Limits of Weaponized Interdependence." Paper presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Los Angeles, CA.
  • Manalac, Tristan. 2024. "Pfizer Makes $1B Commitment in China to Boost Innovation, Targets Chinese Market." BioSpace, November 8, 2024. https://www.biospace.com/business/pfizer-makes-1b-commitment-in-china-to-boost-innovation-target-chinese-market.
  • McGee, Patrick. 2025. Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company. New York: Scribner.
  • Mohr, Alexander, Niron Hashai, Jonas Puck, Palitha Konara, and Hubertus Reinprecht. 2024. "Remaking the Multinational Corporation: Geographically Dispersed Unbundling and Intangible Assets." Management International Review 64 (6): 991–1020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11575-024-00558-0.
  • Moura, Sthefanie T. G., Thomas C. Lawton, and Damian Tobin. 2025. "How Do Multinational Enterprises Respond to Geopolitics? A Review and Research Agenda." International Journal of Management Reviews. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijmr.12399.
  • Osgood, Iain. 2017. "The Breakdown of Industrial Opposition to Trade: Firms, Product Variety and Reciprocal Liberalization." World Politics 69 (1): 184–231. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887116000174.
  • Pape, Robert A. 1996. Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
  • Pfeffer, Jeffrey, and Gerald R. Salancik. 1978. The External Control of Organizations: A Resource Dependence Perspective. New York: Harper & Row.
  • Pfizer. 2025. "Pfizer Completes Licensing Agreement with 3SBio for SSGJ-707, an Investigational PD-1×VEGF Bispecific Antibody." Press release, July 24, 2025. https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-completes-licensing-agreement-3sbio.
  • Pfizer Inc. 2025. Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024. Washington, DC: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Qualcomm. 2025. "Qualcomm Technologies Expands Its Global Engineering Centers to Abu Dhabi." Press release, May 16, 2025. https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2025/05/qualcomm-technologies-expands-its-global-engineering-centers-to-.
  • Qualcomm Incorporated. 2025. Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended September 28, 2025. Washington, DC: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Ramkumar, Amrith, and Robbie Whelan. 2025. "Trump Says US Will Allow Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Get 25% Cut." Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2025. https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-china-exports-h2000-chips-5943aa48.
  • Reuters. 2025a. "Qualcomm Launches AI R&D Centre in Vietnam." Reuters, June 11, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/qualcomm-launches-ai-rd-centre-vietnam-2025-06-11/.
  • Seawright, Jason. 2016. Multi-Method Social Science: Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Tools. Strategies for Social Inquiry. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Sternfels, Bob, and Olivia White. 2023. "To Reinvent Globalization, Companies and Countries Should Think 'Diversifying,' Not 'Decoupling.'" Fortune, January 20, 2023. https://fortune.com/2023/01/20/reinvent-globalization-companies-trade-countries-diversifying-not-decoupling-mckinsey-global-sternfels-white/.
  • Stopford, John M., and Susan Strange, with John S. Henley. 1991. Rival States, Rival Firms: Competition for World Market Shares. Cambridge Studies in International Relations 18. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited. 2025. Form 20-F for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024. Washington, DC: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Teece, David J. 2007. "Explicating Dynamic Capabilities: The Nature and Microfoundations of (Sustainable) Enterprise Performance." Strategic Management Journal 28 (13): 1319–1350. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.640.
  • Times of Israel. 2025. "Chip Giant Nvidia to Invest More Than $500m in New Israeli AI Research Data Lab." Times of Israel, January 15, 2025. https://www.timesofisrael.com/chip-giant-nvidia-to-invest-more-than-500m-in-new-israeli-ai-research-data-lab/.
  • Verbeke, Alain. 2018. "The Future of International Business Research on Corporate Globalization That Never Was..." Journal of International Business Studies 49: 1101–1112.
  • Vernon, Raymond. 1971. Sovereignty at Bay: The Multinational Spread of US Enterprises. New York: Basic Books.
  • Zhu, Julie. 2025. "Nvidia Seeks Shanghai R&D Site after US Chip Curbs, Say Sources." Reuters, May 16, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-seeks-shanghai-rd-site-after-us-chip-curbs-say-sources-2025-05-16/.