Can Personal Income Tax Cut Motivate People to Get Married?—Evidence from China

This paper examines whether personal income tax cuts have impact on individuals' marriage decisions through the 2011 tax reform in China. Using micro-level data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and employing an RD design, this paper finds that tax cuts significantly increase the probability of marriage among low-income women near the lowest tax threshold, with an estimated effect size of 3–4 percentage points. In contrast, no robust significant effect is detected for men. A series of robustness checks confirms the stability of these findings. The results suggest that direct income increases, even under a withholding tax system without joint filing, can positively affect marriage, particularly among low- and middle-income women. These findings contribute to understanding the economic determinants of marriage and provide insights for policymakers trying to address the low marriage and fertility challenge.