The Effect of the Great Recession on Marital Status and Marital Sorting

We estimate the effect of the Great Recession (2007-2009) on individuals' marriage decisions across the U.S. Using one-year estimates from the American Community Survey (2003-2015), we exploit state-level variations in labor market conditions during the Recession to compare marital status and sorting patterns between the pre- and post-recession periods. We find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate during the Recession is expected to increase the probability of individuals being married by 1.1%, and to decrease the probability of individuals being single to widow by 1.0%. According to the Beckerian model of household production, our results suggest that the Great Recession, on average, increases household production surplus by lowering the market value of individuals' time.