Valuing the benefits of reducing firearm violence in the United States

Justifying a proposed government regulation intended to reduce firearm violence requires a conceptually sound estimate of the monetized value of that impact and how that value is distributed across the population. Some previous estimates do not serve as a valid basis for policy evaluation or are out of date. A nationally representative survey was conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in August 2022 (n = 660). The authors designed and added a series of contingent-valuation items to the questionnaire. Double-bounded estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) were derived from a regression analysis of responses regarding voting on a hypothetical referendum on a state-wide package of measures designed to reduce gun violence at specified cost to taxpayers. Average WTP for a reduction of 20% in the state rate of gun violence was 744 USD per household (IQR:668 USD–928 USD), implying a national total of 97.6 billion USD. Household WTP was positively associated with household income, the respondent's assessment of the seriousness of gun violence in their community and the subjective likelihood that they would become a victim of gun violence. A variety of tests support the claim that this application of the contingent-valuation method provided valid results. WTP is the recognized basis for assessing the value of proposed federal regulations. The estimated WTP for reducing gun violence is about twice as high as a recent cost-of-injury estimate and provides a much different picture of the incidence of costs by income and demographic characteristics.