Refugee Inflow and Native Female Labor Supply

This project investigates the impacts of refugee inflows on native female workers' labor supply characterized by employment status, usual hours worked, and occupational mobility. Utilizing data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) records of refugee inflow, the project aims to use a fixed-effect panel data regression with instrumental variables to identify the causal effect of refugee inflows on US less-skilled native females. The results show no significant impact on overall employment, annual hours worked, or occupational mobility. Heterogeneity analysis draws attention to the most vulnerable group. Refugee inflow has a significant and negative effect on female workers without a high school degree, leading to lower working hours, a lower probability of being employed, and a higher probability of being temporarily laid off. The analysis also unveils the effect of refugee inflows on pushing the female working-age population to work in household production, which leads to decreased labor supply on the extensive margin.