Finance or Gambling? An Anthropological Analysis of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are a new class of financial markets which have been introduced into mainstream financial and technological discourse in the US since 2022. Their risky nature, however, has made them a controversial subject in media and popular discourse. This thesis begins the process of demystifying the social forces at work in the creation, promotion, and use of these markets by analyzing the ways in which prediction markets portray themselves online. Analysis explores the connection between these markets and their touted commitments to trust, democratization, and neoliberal ideas of information in markets, concluding that the public image of prediction market companies and their accompanying platforms lacks coherence, taking up contradictory or confused values depending on the situation. Supplementing this research is an ethnographic account of the behavior of Kalshi users, as depicted by the users themselves on Kalshi's official Discord server. Users embody two archetypes, of the 'trader,' employing a financial orientation to profit off the markets, and of the 'gambler,' taking big risks and losing money on longshot bets. These findings indicate that prediction markets, contrary to the claims of their advocates, foster complicated environments that promote forms of financial involvement that do not fit traditional pictures of responsible investment. Such a picture unsettles the role of financial markets and technology in society and invites further study into its ramifications.