Public Sentiment Dynamics for Zero-COVID Policy in China: The Wulumuqi Fire as the Tipping Point

The stringent lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic were a double-edged sword. On one hand, they were crucial in controlling the virus's spread, but on the other hand, they disrupted everyday life, leading to significant public discontent in China. This discontent, initially suppressed, found an outlet following the Wulumuqi fire incident, giving birth to the Blank Paper Movement. Our study examines the complex dynamics between these lockdown experiences and the evolving public sentiment towards the Chinese government's Zero-Covid policy. Using sentiment analysis of Weibo data from comments posted under the official account of People's Daily from April to December, we construct a provincial-level measure of public opinion. We find that individuals who experienced more stringent lockdowns were more likely to express negative views towards the government, particularly following the Wulumuqi fire incident. The stringent lockdowns, the vivid crisis in this context, left an indelible mark on people's minds, forging a strong preference for policy change among the most affected. When the Wulumuqi fire incident presented a window of opportunity, these individuals leveraged it to express their latent discontent, thereby contributing to the shift in public sentiment. This research underscores the powerful role of collective memory and crisis-induced preference formation in driving rapid changes in public sentiment and collective action. These insights have significant implications for understanding the dynamic interplay between public sentiment and policy decision-making, particularly in the context of public health crises.