Published June 2026
| Version v1
Thesis
Event Shocks and Partisan Affect Asymmetry During the Black Lives Matter (BLM) Protests
Contributors
Advisors:
Description
Does affective polarization respond symmetrically to major political shocks? Using139,064 tweets from political elites and public users in a ±100-day window around George Floyd's killing on May 25, 2020, this paper estimates interrupted time-series models of moral-foundations density, sentiment, and destructive toxicity by source and party. Democratic discourse moves immediately into moralized language with a sustained post-event slope and a parallel turn toward more solidaristic sentiment, activating moralization as a sub-dimension of partisan animus. Republican discourse first disengages from the dominant moral framing of the event and then re-engages on a different moral grammar, with destructive toxicity rising slowly afterward, consistent with a value-protection mechanism under threat. Elite signals concentrate at the moment of the shock, while public expression carries the post-event trajectories. Asymmetric affective polarization therefore takes a structural form, with each coalition activating a different sub-dimension of partisan animus through which the event is publicly enacted and reinforced.