Published June 2026 | Version v1
Thesis Embargoed

Event Shocks and Partisan Affect Asymmetry During the Black Lives Matter (BLM) Protests

Creators

  • 1. University of Chicago

Contributors

Description

Does affective polarization respond symmetrically to major political shocks? Using139,064 tweets from political elites and public users in a ±100-day window around George Floyd's killing on May 25, 2020, this paper estimates interrupted time-series models of moral-foundations density, sentiment, and destructive toxicity by source and party. Democratic discourse moves immediately into moralized language with a sustained post-event slope and a parallel turn toward more solidaristic sentiment, activating moralization as a sub-dimension of partisan animus. Republican discourse first disengages from the dominant moral framing of the event and then re-engages on a different moral grammar, with destructive toxicity rising slowly afterward, consistent with a value-protection mechanism under threat. Elite signals concentrate at the moment of the shock, while public expression carries the post-event trajectories. Asymmetric affective polarization therefore takes a structural form, with each coalition activating a different sub-dimension of partisan animus through which the event is publicly enacted and reinforced.

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Embargoed

The files will be made publicly available on May 18, 2027.

Additional details

UChicago Information

Division(s)
Social Sciences Division
Department(s)
MA Program in the Social Sciences (MAPSS)