When Democracy Disappoints: Loser's Effect, Fraud Belief and Political Violence During the 2020 United States Presidential Election

This thesis examines the relationship between electoral defeat, elite cues, and support for political violence in the aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. While prior scholarship has emphasized the "winner's effect," which enhances trust and confidence among electoral victors, little attention has been given to the "loser's effect" and its potential to foster violent attitudes even in consolidated democracies. Drawing on a nationally representative multi-wave panel from the VOTER Survey (2016–2020), I investigate whether electoral loss, belief in fraud, economic insecurity, and racial anxiety shape individual support for political violence. Using OLS regression and causal mediation analysis, I find that electoral defeat significantly increased violent attitudes among Trump voters, whereas Biden's victory had no corresponding pacifying effect. Importantly, this relationship is mediated by belief in electoral fraud, which operates as a conduit for elite cues. Fraud belief not only offsets the direct effect of losing but, among individuals with high economic insecurity and racial anxiety, strongly amplifies support for political violence. These findings reveal that electoral defeat does not automatically generate violent responses; rather, the effect emerges when filtered through elite-driven fraud narratives that frame defeat as illegitimate. The study contributes to the literature by bridging research on electoral outcomes, political psychology, and democratic resilience. It demonstrates how long-term anxieties—economic vulnerability and racial demographic change—interact with short-term elite rhetoric to shape violent attitudes. More broadly, the results suggest that the durability of democracy rests less on citizens' willingness to accept loss than on their beliefs about institutional legitimacy. When trust in electoral integrity collapses, losing an election can become a catalyst for radicalization, highlighting the importance of elite responsibility and information environments in safeguarding democratic stability.