Published January 29, 2025 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Negative Probability

  • 1. University of Chicago
  • 2. George Mason University

Description

Negative probabilities arise primarily in physics, statistical quantum mechanics, and quantum computing. Negative probabilities arise as mixing distributions of unobserved latent variables in Bayesian modeling. Our goal is to provide a link between these two viewpoints. Bartlett provides a definition of negative probabilities based on extraordinary random variables and properties of their characteristic function. A version of the Bayes rule is given with negative mixing weights. The classic half-coin distribution and Polya-Gamma mixing are discussed. Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the duality of scale mixtures of Normals is also discussed. A number of examples of dual densities with negative mixing measures are provided including the Linnik and Wigner distributions. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

Data availability

Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study.

Files

Negative-Probability.pdf

Files (198.0 kB)

Name Size Download all
md5:4e4015b3b689cccdf6ea67ff3131c03c
198.0 kB Preview Download

Additional details

Identifiers

DOI
10.1002/asmb.2910
Other
oai:uchicago.tind.io:14489

UChicago Information

Division(s)
Booth School of Business
Department(s)
Econometrics and Statistics