The Evolution of Provincial Governance Autonomy: An Analysis of Government Work Reports (2002–2024)

This paper examines the evolution of provincial governance autonomy in China since 2002, focusing on the persistent tension between central authority and local adaptation. Analyzing 734 Government Work Reports from 2002 to 2024, the study identifies a shift toward strategic autonomy under compliance. By employing Sentence-BERT, ANOVA, PCA, and Structural Topic Modeling, the research identifies how macro-discursive distances between central and local reports have narrowed since 2012. Although this validates a trend of political convergence, this surface homogeneity masks persistent local discretion. Local elites utilize discursive innovation by replicating central terminology to ensure political safety while retaining flexibility through functional specialization in areas such as the digital economy. Furthermore, lead-lag analysis reveals a dual diffusion pattern in which technology-driven issues exhibit a bottom-up pioneer effect, whereas directive tasks like poverty alleviation follow top-down command structures. Local autonomy has transformed from institutional resistance into refined technical discretion as a structural necessity for systemic resilience.