@article{TEXTUAL,
      recid = {9703},
      author = {Jägermeyr, Jonas and Robock, Alan and Elliott, Joshua and  Müller, Christoph and Xia, Lili and Khabarov, Nikolay and  Folberth, Christian and Schmid, Erwin and Liu, Wenfeng and  Zabel, Florian and Rabin, Sam S. and Puma, Michael J. and  Heslin, Alison and Franke, James and Foster, Ian and  Asseng, Senthold and Bardeen, Charles G. and Toon, Owen B.  and Rosenzweig, Cynthia},
      title = {A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food  security},
      journal = {PNAS},
      address = {2020-03-16},
      number = {TEXTUAL},
      abstract = {A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could  ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot  into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown  severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in  global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%,  for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global  food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models  show that global caloric production from maize, wheat,  rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and  17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)%  quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and  exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic  eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than  changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to  strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N,  including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15  y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that  domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the  production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear  losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability  and propagate to the Global South, especially to  food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat  availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more  than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of  1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in  South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using  <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse  consequences for global food security unmatched in modern  history.},
      url = {http://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/9703},
}