@article{THESIS,
      recid = {5811},
      author = {Duval, Chloe},
      title = {Get Out the Vote (or Don’t): Evaluating Manipulation  Methods in Russian National Elections from 2000 to 2021},
      publisher = {University of Chicago},
      school = {B.A.},
      address = {2022-04},
      number = {THESIS},
      abstract = {<p>It is not disputed that Russia’s elections under  Vladimir Putin are fraudulent. Ballot stuffing to bolster  the party’s vote share or turnout numbers is among one of  the known tactics. Existing analyses of the Kremlin’s  election manipulation either group together vote share and  turnout fraud or evaluate them on a country-wide basis.  Media noted the Kremlin’s particular focus on improving  turnout in the lead-up to the 2018 election, but no project  has yet evaluated if turnout was manipulated or to what  extent. By conducting a two-tiered regional analysis of  precinct-level election data spanning ten election years, I  use the Integer Percentage Point method and Resampled  Kernel Density tests to compare turnout and vote share  abnormalities. I ask how the nature of election fraud has  changed during Putin’s presidency. I find that, while vote  share remains the primary number manipulated, ethnic  republics exhibited different patterns of ballot stuffing  than other regions. I suggest three implications of this  work. First, that fraud is often easy to spot. Second, that  election observers are a relevant policy response to  election manipulation. Third, that turnout is a concern for  the Kremlin, and should be considered in future  analyses.</p>},
      url = {http://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/5811},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.6082/uchicago.5811},
}