@article{THESIS,
      recid = {5112},
      author = {Zhang, Buwen},
      title = {Factor Forecast of Real Economic Activity Using Yield  Curves},
      publisher = {University of Chicago},
      school = {M.A.},
      address = {2022-12},
      number = {THESIS},
      abstract = {According to Estrella and Mishkin (1998), recession  predictions can be made directly from financial indicators.  This thesis aims to implement a new method of forecasting  output growth for large economies, using information from  the entire yield curve. After identifying the two common  factors for the U.S. economy using a factor approach and  detecting the relative power between the FAVAR model (a  factor-augmented vector autoregressive model) and the basic  VAR model, the predictive results of the factor model are  shown to be more precise than the direct forecast of the  GDP growth as expected.},
      url = {http://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/5112},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.6082/uchicago.5112},
}