@article{THESIS,
      recid = {4315},
      author = {Zand, Arian},
      title = {Stabilization by Institutionalization:  Electoral  Competition and Authoritarian Regime Durability },
      publisher = {University of Chicago},
      school = {M.A.},
      address = {2022-08},
      number = {THESIS},
      abstract = {Abstract:  Authoritarian regimes adopt nominally  democratic institutions despite the inherent uncertainty  that these institutions entail. What effects do elections  and parties have on authoritarian regime stability? Are  autocracies with parties and competitive elections more  stable than their less electorally competitive  counterparts? What functions can elections serve in  non-democracies? This paper provides a naïve Bayesian  informational theory of electoral institutionalization  under authoritarianism. Democratic emulation, exemplified  in parties and elections, enhances the chance of  authoritarian survival by supplying the ruling elites with  (1) information about the sources of support and opposition  to the regime among the citizenry and (2) information to  monitor intra-party mobilization capacity, loyalty and  performance. Autocrats update their beliefs about the  probabilities of support and opposition after each  election. Over time, this cumulative learning helps them  maximize their survival chances. From this basic theory,  three observable implications are derived and subsequently  tested: (1) party-based authoritarian regimes are more  stable than more closed authoritarian regimes, and (2) on  average, the higher the degree of legislative and executive  electoral competitiveness within a regime and across  regimes, the higher the probability of regime survival  would be, and (3) the stabilizing effect of electoral  competitiveness grows over time. To test these predictions,  I use three functional forms, respectively: (1)  product-limit Kaplan-Meier with stringent log-rank  specification, (2) a modified version of the Cox  proportional hazard model, and (3) Aalen additive risk  estimation. Despite the limitations of the models in  drawing solid causal inference, the findings lend support  to the stabilization by institutionalization hypothesis. },
      url = {http://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/4315},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.6082/uchicago.4315},
}