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Abstract

The empirical puzzle asks, ‘Why did the AKP lose the 2019 mayoral elections in its strongholds Istanbul and Ankara while it continued its winning streak in Konya and Bursa?’ The theoretical question this project asks is ‘Why do incumbent populist parties lose the support of the people?’ I use the Turkish mayoral elections in four cities to help answer the empirical question. August 14, 2021 officially marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Justice and Development party, known as the AKP, in Turkey. Since first wielding significant power in the national assembly in 2002, the AKP has gone from being generally praised, to being widely criticized. Most of these criticisms stem from what many would call democratic backsliding as the AKP seems to be de-secularizing the country. Despite this, scholars have noted that the AKP has continued to win local and national elections with comfortable margins. However, the 2019 mayoral elections proved to be an outlier as an opposition candidate won the mayoral seats of Istanbul and Ankara, both considered to be AKP strongholds. This poses an interesting situation worth analyzing. This study tests three hypotheses which rest on the variables of religious self-identification, democratic values, and economic voting. Using the survey platform Qualtrics, 105 respondents from each of the cities of Ankara, Bursa, Istanbul, and Konya were asked to participate in this study. Relevant to my hypotheses, the results were inconclusive as the sample size of 420 total respondents was too small.

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