TY  - GEN
AB  - Less-than-certain conditional judgments pose notorious problems for strict analyses of conditionals: across their various incarnations, these analyses have trouble making sense of how conditionals could have non-trivial probabilities in the first place; minimal constraints on how such probabilities are to be assigned, moreover, lead to results that seem at odds with a strict outlook on the semantics of conditionals, most notably the validity of Conditional Excluded Middle. I demonstrate that a strict analysis can overcome the trouble if couched in a bilateral dynamic setting that properly extends the familiar Ramsey test for accepting conditionals to other iffy attitudes, most importantly the one of rejecting a conditional. The resulting framework accommodates the appeal of Stalnaker's thesis as well as of Conditional Excluded Middle in a strict setting. A discussion of how to handle the probability of epistemically modalized conditionals and of compounds of conditionals is provided.
AD  - University of Chicago
AU  - Willer, Malte
DA  - 2024-07-29
ID  - 13030
JF  - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research
L1  - https://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/13030/files/Credences-for-strict-conditionals.pdf
L2  - https://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/13030/files/Credences-for-strict-conditionals.pdf
L4  - https://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/13030/files/Credences-for-strict-conditionals.pdf
LA  - eng
LK  - https://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/13030/files/Credences-for-strict-conditionals.pdf
N2  - Less-than-certain conditional judgments pose notorious problems for strict analyses of conditionals: across their various incarnations, these analyses have trouble making sense of how conditionals could have non-trivial probabilities in the first place; minimal constraints on how such probabilities are to be assigned, moreover, lead to results that seem at odds with a strict outlook on the semantics of conditionals, most notably the validity of Conditional Excluded Middle. I demonstrate that a strict analysis can overcome the trouble if couched in a bilateral dynamic setting that properly extends the familiar Ramsey test for accepting conditionals to other iffy attitudes, most importantly the one of rejecting a conditional. The resulting framework accommodates the appeal of Stalnaker's thesis as well as of Conditional Excluded Middle in a strict setting. A discussion of how to handle the probability of epistemically modalized conditionals and of compounds of conditionals is provided.
PY  - 2024-07-29
T1  - Credences for strict conditionals
TI  - Credences for strict conditionals
UR  - https://knowledge.uchicago.edu/record/13030/files/Credences-for-strict-conditionals.pdf
Y1  - 2024-07-29
ER  -